I am the sports editor for a sports news and betting website. I have many years of experience in betting, sports journalism and studying mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well I guess you could say that.
There are countless so-called betting experts willing to give away information from their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to earn a second income from betting, for a price of course. I won’t do that. I’ll simply give you information about bookmakers, odds and bets for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.
The first thing to mention is that the vast majority of people who play games of chance will be net losers over time. This is the reason why there are so many bookmakers making so much money all over the world.
Whilst bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for example if a favorite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and set markets that incorporate margin, so they will always make a profit over the medium to long term. if not the short term. That is, as long as they get the sums right.
When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that event occurring. To do this, they use various statistical models based on data collected over years, sometimes decades, about the sport and the team/competitor in question. Of course, if sport were 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and while bookmakers are often spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they are sometimes wrong, simply because a match or contest is going wrong. develops. against conventional wisdom and statistical probability.
Just look at any sport and you’ll find an occasion where the underdog triumphs against the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating then mighty Liverpool in the 1988 FA Cup Final, for example, or the USA beating then mighty USSR in ice hockey at the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have good odds in the helpless. And could have earned a decent wedge.
The big bookies spend a lot of time and money making sure they have the right odds to ensure they take into account the perceived probability of the event, and then add that little bit extra that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the probabilities reflecting that probability would be 2/1. That is, two to one against that event occurring.
However, a bookie who sets these odds will, over time, break even (assuming his statistics are correct). So instead they would set the odds to, say, 6/4. In this way, they have built the margin that ensures, over time, that they will benefit from the people who bet on this selection. It is the same concept as a casino roulette.
So how can you spot when the bookies have been wrong? Well, easier said than done, but far from impossible.
One way is to get very good at mathematical modeling and set up a model that takes into account as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this tactic is that, however complex and comprehensive the model may seem, it can never account for the minutiae of variables related to individual human mental states. Whether a golfer will sink a winning five-foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews depends as much on his concentration as it does on the weather or the day of the week. Also, the math can start to get pretty tricky.
Alternatively, you can find yourself a sports niche. Bookies will focus their resources on the events that make the most money, usually soccer, football, and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a match between Manchester United and Chelsea will be difficult. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or coaches, the bookmaker that sets the odds is likely to have more information than you do.
However, if you are betting on non-league football, badminton or green crown bowling, it is possible that through hard work, reading a lot of statistics and gathering general information, you can start to gain an advantage over the bookies. betting (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).
And what do you do when you have an advantage in terms of information? You follow the value.
Value betting is backing a selection at odds greater than the actual probability of an event occurring. So, for example, if you assess the probability of a particular non-league football team (Grimsby Town for example) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and find a bookmaker who has set the odds to 3/1 , you have a value bet on your hands. The reason is that the odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin incorporated by the bookie) suggest a probability of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie has, in his now learned opinion, underestimated Grimsby’s chances, thus effectively building an 8% margin for you.
Of course Grimsby (as is often the case) could alter their lines and not win the match and therefore lose the bet. But if you continue to search and value bet, you will eventually make a profit. If you don’t, over time, you will lose. Easy.
So the question is, do you have the time and inclination to spend hours searching and refining your sports niches and/or searching for value bets? If the answer is yes, good for you, go ahead. If the answer is no, fear not. At http://www.freebetsfreetips.com/ we regularly offer free betting tips along with the best odds for various sporting events that will take the hassle out of making your sports picks and bring you news, match previews and the best free bets. . offers to help you get the best value bets.
Or, of course, you could marry a soccer player!